☕ "May do it, may not do it"

Good morning!

And a very happy Juneteenth! It’s a federal holiday, so you won’t see financial markets, postal services, schools (most of whom are already off for summer break), or government offices open today. It’s only the fourth year the day is an official federal holiday, after it was designated in 2021.

I’ve got 30 seconds

Some headlines from this morning:

The death toll from a Russian strike on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv has risen to 28, after a nine-story apartment was hit during the most significant missile attack on the city since the beginning of the conflict. The strike, which injured more than 130 people, was part of a broader attack, which saw Russia send 220 drones and 32 missiles into Kyiv, according to international media reports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called it “one of the most terrifying strikes" against Kyiv. The attack comes against a backdrop of stalled peace talks, following more than three years of conflict in the region. Around 12,500 civilians are estimated to have been killed in the war since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to UN data.

The FDA have approved a new HIV prevention vaccine, ahead of an anticipated global rollout. HIV is a virus that attacks the cells in the body which fight off diseases. In a world-first, a new vaccine, branded as Yeztugo, can successfully “reduce the risk of sexually acquired HIV in adults and adolescents.” Clinical trials of the twice-a-year immunisation reported 99.99% of participants continued to remain HIV negative. Gilead Sciences, who developed the technology, said: “[The vaccine] is one of the most important scientific breakthroughs of our time and offers a very real opportunity to help end the HIV epidemic.”

India and Canada agreed to restore diplomatic relations at Tuesday's G7 summit, two years after Canada accused Indian agents of assassinating Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the mutual return of expelled diplomats and resumed visa services following talks with Indian PM Narendra Modi, calling it a "necessary first step." The breakthrough follows former PM Justin Trudeau's 2023 allegations linking Indian intelligence to Nijjar's killing outside a Vancouver temple. India has consistently denied involvement, dismissing the accusations as "absurd".

The Los Angeles Lakers are reportedly set to be sold for $10 billion, making the NBA franchise the most valuable U.S. professional sports team ever. The valuation comes as the Buss family, a majority stakeholder in the team, sells its stake to American businessman Mark Walter. The Buss family have owned the team since 1979, when Jerry Buss bought it for $67.5 million. The reported deal with Walter surpasses the previous record set in March with sale of the Celtics to American businessman Bill Chisholm for $6.1 billion.

I’ve got 1 minute

The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming medical care for people under 18.

The 6-3 decision found the state's 2023 law does not violate constitutional protections against discrimination. The ruling could affect similar laws in 24 other states.

Three transgender teenagers, their families, and a doctor had challenged the ban.

What does Tennessee's law prohibit?

The law bans medical treatments for anyone under 18 with gender dysphoria—distress when someone's gender identity differs from their sex assigned at birth.

Prohibited treatments include gender-related surgeries, hormone therapy, puberty blockers, or breast development.

These same treatments remain legal for other medical conditions.

The legal challenge

The plaintiffs argued the ban violated the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause by discriminating based on sex and transgender status.

They said identical medical treatments are allowed for some conditions, but not for gender dysphoria.

The Justice Department joined the challenge. After lower court rulings, the case reached the Supreme Court, whose decisions are not subject to appeal.

The ruling

The court's conservative majority ruled the law was constitutional. The three liberal justices dissented.

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote: "We leave questions regarding its policy to the people, their elected representatives, and the democratic process."

Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote in dissent that the ruling would cause "untold harm to transgender children and the parents and families who love them."

The responses

Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti called it a "landmark decision" and "big win for democracy."

The American Civil Liberties Union, which represented the challengers, called the ruling "heartbreaking."

"No young person should be denied access to medically necessary care," said ACLU attorney Chase Strangio.

What happens next?

Twenty-five states have laws restricting gender-affirming care for minors, affecting approximately 100,000 transgender people under 18.

The ruling means states can continue enforcing these bans. Some states are considering new restrictions, while others protect access to gender-affirming care.

Medical organizations including the American Medical Association support access to age-appropriate gender-affirming care, calling it medically necessary for some youth with gender dysphoria.

I’ve got 2 minutes

Following continued escalations between Israel and Iran, President Trump has refused to rule out American military intervention. When asked yesterday if the U.S. would attack Iran, Trump said: "I may do it, I may not do it."

The remarks mark a significant escalation in U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict. Here's what you need to know.

What’s the latest?

The crisis began Friday when Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, including Tehran apartment buildings housing military officials.

Israel said it acted because Iran was progressing toward developing a nuclear bomb. Iran responded with missile attacks on Israeli cities including Tel Aviv.

More than 220 people have died in Iran, including civilians and military officials. Israeli authorities confirmed 24 civilian deaths.

Trump has since called for the "unconditional surrender" of Iran's Supreme Leader and urged evacuation of Tehran's 10 million residents.

Why does Iran’s nuclear program matter?

Iran's nuclear ambitions have driven Middle East tensions for decades. In 2015, Iran agreed to keep its nuclear program "exclusively peaceful" in exchange for reduced sanctions.

Trump withdrew from that deal during his first term, arguing it failed to stop Iran's military build-up. Since returning to office in January, his administration held five rounds of talks with Iran about its nuclear program.

A sixth meeting scheduled for Sunday was canceled after Israel's strikes began.

How might the U.S. get involved?

Military analysts say the U.S. could target Iran's underground nuclear facility near Tehran using "bunker buster" bombs that penetrate deep underground before detonating.

The U.S. has both these weapons and fighter jets capable of carrying them.

Iran's Supreme Leader warned overnight: "The harm the US will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily."

Who supports intervention?

Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton and other Republicans have long advocated for tougher action against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been a consistent critic of Iran's nuclear program.

"Iran has crossed every red line we've set," Cotton told Fox News. "It's time for decisive action."

Who opposes it?

Opposition crosses party lines. Republican Representative Thomas Massie posted: "This is not our war. But if it were, Congress must decide such matters."

Democratic Senator Tim Kaine warned the move could drag America into "another endless conflict."

Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host and Trump supporter, grilled Senator Ted Cruz about intervention in a two-hour interview. "You don't know anything about Iran!" Carlson said at one point.

Even Trump's National Security Advisor Tulsi Gabbard faced criticism for suggesting CIA intelligence showed Iran wasn't developing nuclear weapons. Trump responded: "I don't care what she said."

What happens next?

Google searches for "World War III" have spiked since the strikes began. While there's no official definition, historians consider world wars to be conflicts drawing in multiple countries across continents.

The UN was created specifically to prevent such conflicts after World War II.

Trump left this week's G7 summit early, saying he had something "much bigger" than a ceasefire to handle. His comments about potential strikes suggest any U.S. action could come within days.

Congress would typically need to approve military action, though presidents have increasingly acted without formal declarations of war since World War II.

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