☕ The ceasefire is here

Good morning!

It’s a historic day for the Middle East, with President Trump currently addressing Israel’s parliament after the 20 remaining living hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were released in exchange for 2,000 prisoners held in Israeli prisons. Trump is only in Israel for a few hours, before jetting to Egypt for an international summit where the peace plan for Gaza is due to be signed.

A big week of news ahead.

I’ve got 30 seconds

Some headlines from this morning:

• A federal appeals court blocked the Trump administration from deploying federalized National Guard troops in Illinois on Saturday, but allowed existing troops to remain under federal control. The ruling modifies Judge Perry's Thursday order that required out-of-state Guard members to return home. Currently, 200 Texas National Guard troops, 14 from California, and 300 from Illinois remain mobilized under federal authority. The legal battle will likely continue as the administration considers its next steps.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted Russia caused an Azerbaijani passenger jet crash that killed 38 people on Christmas Day. Speaking at a summit in Tajikistan, Putin said Russian forces mistook the plane for a Ukrainian drone and fired a surface-to-air missile that detonated just 10 meters from the aircraft mid-flight. The remaining 29 passengers aboard the 67-person flight survived the crash. Putin promised to punish those responsible and provide compensation to victims' families.

• Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo closed on Sunday as the federal government shutdown entered its third week. The Smithsonian Institution's 19 museums and zoo had remained open since the shutdown began on October 1 by using prior-year budget funds, but those reserves ran out over the weekend. The zoo said animals "will continue to be fed and cared for," though its live animal cameras went offline. The closures will continue until Congress reaches a funding agreement, with roughly 1.4 million federal employees now furloughed or working without pay.

• Humans are living 20 years longer than in 1950, with all 204 countries studied reporting declining mortality rates, according to new research published Sunday in The Lancet. Global life expectancy reached 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men in 2023, returning to pre-pandemic levels after falling during COVID-19. However, the study by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found an "emerging crisis" of rising death rates among adolescents and young adults, particularly in North America where deaths among 20 to 39-year-olds increased due to suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol. The research showed noncommunicable diseases like heart disease and diabetes now account for two-thirds of global deaths, while about half of the world's disease burden remains preventable through addressing risk factors like high blood pressure, smoking and obesity.

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Earlier this morning, Hamas released 20 living hostages, while Israel released nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, as part of the first phase of the U.S.-led peace agreement.

The first phase also involves Israeli troops withdrawing to an “agreed-upon line”. Here’s what to know.

Hostages

When Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, it took 240 hostages, including both soldiers and civilians, such as the attendees of a music festival near Israel’s border with Gaza. Hamas took others from their homes.

Before Monday, the UN said 48 hostages were still captive, 20 of whom were believed to be alive. Many hostages, both living and dead, were released or rescued by Israeli forces over the last two years. Hostage releases came during previous pauses in hostilities.

On Monday, Hamas released seven living hostages to the Red Cross in Gaza, followed by another 13. The Red Cross then handed them over to the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). The IDF took them to reunite with their families and receive medical treatment.

Hamas also released the remains of some hostages to the IDF via the Red Cross. A process of identification will now begin. A spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed earlier on Monday that if the remains of any hostages cannot be located in Gaza, “an international body” will be formed to find them.

Prisoners and detainees

After Hamas released the living hostages, Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Of the group, 250 are Palestinians on life sentences, including people convicted of murder, and planning and executing terror attacks.

According to the peace plan, Israel also released 1,700 people detained after 7 October 2023, “including all women and children detained in that context”.

Both the UN Human Rights Office and Israeli human rights group B’Tselem have found Israeli authorities have detained thousands of Palestinians indefinitely without charges or a trial.

The UN report, published in July 2024, specifically looked the IDF’s “arbitrary” detention of Palestinians after 7 October 2023.

The UN found the IDF took Palestinians “into custody” while they were sheltering in place, or passing through checkpoints while being displaced within Gaza.

I’ve got 2 minutes

The fragile trade truce between the U.S. and China collapsed over the weekend after Beijing imposed new export controls on rare earth minerals - materials critical to everything from smartphones to military equipment. President Trump responded with 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods and threatened additional restrictions. Here's what you need to know.

A (brief) history of the U.S./China Trade War

The U.S.-China trade war began in 2018 during Trump's first term, characterized by escalating tariffs and import restrictions. In April, Trump imposed 145% "Liberation Day" tariffs on China, which responded with 125% counter-tariffs. These massive levies functioned as a near-total trade embargo until negotiations in Geneva led to reduced tariffs and a temporary peace.

Why was the truce broken?

On Thursday, China announced that any company exporting products containing rare earth minerals would need special approval from the Ministry of Commerce. China controls 70% of global rare earth production and handles 90% of processing worldwide. Beijing said the restrictions were needed to "safeguard national security" and prevent military applications of these materials.

President Trump responded by imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S. and signaling new software export controls would take effect November 1. The move marks the collapse of several months of cooperation following trade talks in Geneva in May.

Is the end in sight?

China's Commerce Minister said Beijing's position remains clear: "We do not want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight."

However, Trump later struck a more conciliatory tone on Truth Social: "Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn't want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!"

An upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely serve as the forum for renewed negotiations.

Markets react.

Asian markets absorbed the heaviest losses. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 3.41% and China's CSI 300 dropped 1.76%. U.S. stock indexes also declined, but are expected to bounce back today.

Gold hit an all-time high of $4,060 per troy ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the uncertainty. The precious metal has nearly doubled in value this year.

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