☕ Why Trump pressed pause

Good morning!

Tariffs on pause, tourism on slo-mo, and change on fast-forward. It’s all in today’s newsletter, which you can read at any speed you want!

I’ve got 30 seconds

Some headlines from this morning:

• The European Union has announced 20% tariffs on $23 billion worth of US goods in response to the 25% tariffs on European steel and aluminum announced by the White House last week. The EU said the tariffs, approved by every member nation except Hungary, would only be removed once a “fair and balanced negotiated outcome” was reached. The first of the tariffs will come into effect on April 15, with more on May 15 and the rest on December 1. The EU has not released a list of the targeted goods, but Reuters reports that American motorcycles, poultry, fruit, and wood will likely be included.

• The death toll from a fatal roof collapse at a popular Dominican Republican nightclub rose to 184 people on Wednesday, and officials said “all reasonable possibilities of finding more survivors” had been exhausted. Jet Set nightclub was hosting over 300 guests on Tuesday for a concert by merengue singer Rubby Perez when the roof collapsed. Perez was among the dead, along with two former professional baseball players and a local politician.

• China’s State Council, equivalent to the US cabinet, will directly oversee an investigation into Tuesday’s fire at the Guoen Senior Home that killed 20 elderly residents and left another 19 in hospital. Police took the facility’s manager into custody, and the State Council urged all aged care facilities to adhere to fire safety standards. The Guoen Senior Home fire comes just one week after two firemen died in a building fire in northeastern China whilst ushing 40 people to saftey.

• A man has pleaded guilty to attempting to assassinate Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2022. Nicholas Roske traveled across state lines to Kavanaugh’s Maryland residence before he fled after being spotted by police guarding the justice’s house. Roske turned himself into police, telling detectives he planned to kill Kavanaugh and then himself in response to a leaked draft of a Supreme Court judgment that overturned the pro-abortion rights decision, Roe vs Wade. Roaske is scheduled to be sentenced on October 3 and is facing a maximum sentence of life in prison.

I’ve got 1 minute

A top US government tourism agency has said that over 10% fewer tourists will visit the US in 2025 than last year.

The US National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) said tourism in March dropped by 12% compared to March 2024, and the travel forecasting company Travel Economics predicts a $9 billion drop in tourist spending in the US this year.

These statistics vary from predictions by peak bodies last year that tourism numbers would continue to build after sharply dropping during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The decline

The NTTO predicted as recently as last month that tourism numbers would increase in 2025. However, compared to the first three months of 2024, tourism figures in January- March saw a 3.3% annual decrease.

Last week, Tourism Economics predicted an over 9% decline in US tourism this year. Last year, they predicted tourism would increase by 9% in 2025.

Neighbors changing plans

The steepest decline in tourism has been from US neighbours.

In 2024, Canadians visited the US more than any other country, with 20.2 million visits. This year, Canadians crossing into the US by land in February dropped by 15% compared to the year prior, and Canadian flight bookings in March were down 40% compared to March 2024.

Major Canadian airlines have reduced the number of flights into the US in response to lower demand, as reports emerge that flight bookings between April and September are down 70%.

Mexicans also traveled less to the US, with 23% fewer Mexican tourists flying into the US in March compared to March 2024.

Why?

It’s is not yet possible to determine why tourists aren't visiting America.

Anecdotes reported by ABC NEWS, CNN, and AP attribute the decline in tourism to recent US aggression towards Greenland and Canada, widespread reports tourists are being detained upon entry to the US, and other recent US foreign policy. 

The strong US dollar may also have caused the decline. Japanese tourists preferred South Korea over the US this year because of their weakened currency.

I’ve got 2 minutes

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day pause on the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs his administration had applied to roughly 60 countries.

That means many countries will have their tariffs reduced to a universal rate of 10%, except for China, which will have its tariff increased to 125%.

This meant that the S&P 500, an index measuring movements in the U.S. stock market, recorded one of the most significant single-day increases since World War II.

The announcement

The announcement was made on the President’s social media platform Truth Social, where he said: “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”

It came after the U.S. increased tariffs on China to 104% yesterday, which a Chinese government spokesperson called “economic bullying”.

Australia’s tariff was always at the 10% rate (which was the minimum rate imposed), so this means there has been no change for the country.

Trump said the 90-day pause would allow “more than 75 countries” that had started negotiations with the White House, seeking to reduce its tariffs, to reach a deal.

The pause announcement led to a record-breaking day on the U.S. stock market.

Tariffs

A tariff is a tax on imports. It’s applied to foreign-made goods brought into another country and paid by the importer.

Since coming to power in January, Trump has imposed a range of tariffs on imports to the U.S, including a 25% tariff on Australian steel and aluminium.

The goal of tariffs is to encourage a country’s companies and citizens to buy locally-produced goods, boosting industrial activity. Trump has also claimed that trading partners have “ripped off” America.

‘Liberation Day’

Last week, on Wednesday (local time), Trump announced new tariffs on all products imported to the U.S.

Trump displayed a chart of tariffs imposed against the U.S. by other countries and claimed he was charging “approximately half” of that amount in return. This meant several different rates were given to countries.

China

Last week, China was hit with the highest tariff of any country and has responded by imposing further tariffs on imported U.S. goods.

Because of that response, Trump has incrementally increased China’s tariffs. Yesterday, Trump’s tariff of 104% came into effect on China.

On Wednesday, China retaliated with a tariff of 84% on imports of U.S. goods.

Yesterday, President Trump responded to last night’s retaliation, announcing the increase of tariffs on China to 125%. In his post on Truth Social, Trump said the decision was “based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.”

Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, has said in the past week: “Intimidation, threat and blackmail are not the right way to engage with China.”

“If the U.S... is determined to fight a tariff and trade war, China’s response will continue to the end,” Lin said.

Stock market

The U.S. stock market recorded one of its largest single-day increases since WWII, bringing it back to roughly where it was at the start of April.

Some of the largest U.S. companies have issued official guidance to their shareholders, forecasting lower future growth than initially predicted. Delta Air Lines, for example, reduced its earnings forecast because of “broad economic uncertainty around global trade”.