☕ Will China get more tariffs?

Good morning!

China has vowed to “fight to the end” in the tariff battle - and its resolve will be tested after President Donald Trump threatened to impose an extra 50% tariff on Chinese goods.

In today’s newsletter, let’s zoom out and look at two key relationships for America - Iran and China - in two very different contexts. This is high stakes stuff.

I’ve got 30 seconds

Some headlines from this morning:

• President Donald Trump has delayed a US ban on Chinese-owned social video app TikTok for another 75 days, saying more time was needed for his administration to secure a sale to a domestic company. A legislative ban on TikTok took effect on 9 January for just one day before it was delayed by President Trump, who said he would secure a sale of the American branch of TikTok to an American company within a 75-day period. In a statement, TikTok’s parent company said an agreement was being delayed by “key matters” that needed to be resolved, and “any agreement will be subject to approval under Chinese law”. Parties associated with sale talks include Amazon, AppLovin (which operates OnlyFans), and Oracle.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has visited the White House for the second time this year, just days after 17% tariffs were imposed on Israeli exports to the US. Netanyahu aimed to discuss “tariff issues, the efforts to return our hostages, Israel-Turkey relations, the Iranian threat and the battle against the International Criminal Court” in the meeting with President Trump and other high-ranking officials. The meeting comes amid renewed ground assaults by the Israeli military in Gaza, which has recently come under scrutiny after allegations of attacks on medical workers and journalists by Israeli soldiers.

• The death toll from a 7.7 magnitude earthquake that hit Myanmar last Friday has reached 3,600, with some foreign aid teams returning to their home nations. Rescue workers from Singapore, Malaysia, and India had flown to Myanmar to assist with the disaster recovery, primarily focused on rescuing survivors trapped under the rubble. A ceasefire announced last week between the ruling military junta and resistance groups now appears fragile after reports of continued bombing in the country emerge. The quake has been named the “Big Mandalay Earthquake” by Myanmar’s military junta.

• Secretary of Health Robert F Kennedy Jr has said he will ask the Center for Disease Control (CDC) to stop recommending the addition of fluoride to the national water supply. Experts say fluoride strengthens enamel and prevents damage to teeth, but Kennedy has claimed fluoride at current US levels causes health issues, including cancer. Currently, fluoride in the US occupies 0.7 milligrams per litre; twice that amount is known to cause health issues like bone fractures and damage to the nervous system. Last month, Utah became the first state to ban fluoride in drinking water, but dental associations warn this will lead to more tooth decay.

I’ve got 1 minute

President Trump has announced that “direct” talks with Iran over a potential nuclear deal will take place on Saturday. It comes after Iran recently refused an offer of direct talks with the US.

Announcing the discussions, the President said it would be a “very bad day for Iran” should no agreement be reached, while Iran’s foreign minister insisted the talks would be indirect.

Background

President Trump pledged in his second term to negotiate a deal with Iran that restricted their nuclear capacity.

Historically, the US, Israel, and other Western nations have feared that Iran was developing nuclear weapons. Iran’s official policy is that they are not pursuing a nuclear bomb and nuclear research is solely for civilian purposes.

In 2015, President Obama negotiated a US-Iran peace deal; Iran agreed to restrict their nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief. In his first term, President Trump withdrew the US from this deal.

Since then, international nuclear watchdogs have warned that Iran has increased its stockpile of enriched uranium, a key ingredient in a nuclear bomb.

Recent events

On his return to office, President Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran as part of a “maximum economic pressure” campaign designed to get Iran to negotiate. Israeli PM Benjamin Netenyahu, who is visiting Washington this week, has suggested a co-ordinated attack between Israel and the US on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iran said it would not speak directly with the US if sanctions against it remained in place - rather, it would only be open to non-direct negotiations through another country. Iran’s Supreme Leader said direct talks with the US would "not [be] smart, wise, or honorable."

Last week, Trump said “there will be bombing” in Iran and tariffs placed on Iran’s trading partners if a deal isn't reached in potential talks.

Saturday’s talks

The details (namely, which country would act as the intermediary in the talks) of Saturday’s talks remain unclear.

Iran’s foreign minister posted on X insisting the talks would be indirect and held in Oman, adding, "It is as much an opportunity as it is a test. The ball is in America's court."

I’ve got 2 minutes

President Donald Trump has threatened China with an additional 50% tariff on goods imported into the US - potentially taking its total tariffs to 104% - if it does not wind back its retaliatory 34% tariff by April 9.

The Trump administration first tariffed Chinese goods in 2018, during his first term in office. While the tariffs remained in place through the Biden administration, the trade war between the nations has intensified since Trump’s return to office in January.

It comes as global stock markets suffer a third day straight of sharp declines. Here’s what you need to know.

Trade war

The US/China trade war started in 2018.

Tariffs during President Trump’s first term were more selective. For example, Trump first imposed a 30% tariff on Chinese solar panels.

Initially, the Trump administration justified the tariffs for two core reasons - a response to China’s currency manipulation and intellectual property theft.

Currency manipulation is when a country purposely lowers the value of its currency. This makes its goods cheaper to buy in other countries, helping exports grow and boosting its economy.

China was also accused of not respecting the intellectual property of American companies, copying American products and reselling them for cheaper.

Across the first Trump term, there were multiple instances of the US and China exchanging ‘tit for tat’ tariffs, until a trade deal was reached in 2020.

New developments

After President Trump introduced a 34% tariff on all goods imported into the US from China on top of a 20% tariff introduced earlier this year, China responded by placing its own 34% counter-tariff on American goods, announced on Friday.

Posting on Truth Social, Trump said “if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th”. However, Trump also left the door open for negotiations with China.

The administration reports over 50 countries have requested negotiation meetings since the ‘Liberation Day’ announcements.

If the extra tariffs are indeed imposed, it means US companies would pay a total of 104% on Chinese imports.

China responded to Trump’s statement, stating “pressuring or threatening China is not the right way to engage”.