☕ Russia-Ukraine: what could happen now?

It’s Thursday.

Today, we’re going to look at what happens next - I often find that the news media will report often in these situations about “negotiations” and “uncertainty”, but assume we all know what exactly is at stake, and the options on the table. We address that down below in your two-minute read.

I’ve got 30 seconds

Some headlines from this morning:

President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky have traded verbal blows today, escalating tensions after US-Russia peace talks excluded Ukraine. President Trump appeared to adopt Russian demands for Zelensky to hold elections, calling him a “dictator”. Meanwhile, Zelensky lamented Trump embracing Russian disinformation and called for more truth. Ukraine’s parliament elected to suspend elections in 2024, as Ukrainian law prohibits elections in times of war.

Hamas has handed over the bodies of four Israeli hostages as the first phase of the ceasefire agreement reaches its final stages. It marks the first time the bodies of hostages have been returned to Israel since the ceasefire began last month. A woman in her 30s and her two young sons, aged four and nine months when they were taken, are among the dead. Hamas says the family was killed in an Israeli airstrike, but authorities in Israel say this has not been confirmed. It comes ahead of a swap on Saturday, which will see the release of six living hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israel. Negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire are expected to commence in the coming days.

Debris from SpaceX’s Falcon9 rocket, designed to carry people and freight, has crashed in parts of Poland, and possibly Ukraine, almost a month after launch. The rocket, orbiting Earth, experienced an engine failure, causing large debris to crash behind a Polish warehouse on Wednesday, instead of the planned controlled reentry, which had surviving debris falling into the Pacific Ocean. This marks the fourth engine failure for the Falcon9 and experts warn that increased rocket launches raise the chance of debris surviving reentry and causing damage.

President Trump’s attempt to end birthright citizenship has been struck down by a Court of Appeals. Trump is trying to deny citizenship to the children of parents who are currently in America illegally or occupy a temporary-visa. This directly defies the Fourteenth Amendment which states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” Trump is relying on the clause ““subject to the jurisdiction thereof” in his case to end birth-right citizenship. This ruling against Trump is likely to move on to the Supreme Court.

I’ve got 1 minute

18 of President Trump’s cabinet nominees have officially been confirmed in the Senate. With four more hearings left, here is a quick update on what’s been happening.

The hearings

Throughout the hearings, resistance from both Republican and Democratic Senators has been present. Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and the confirmations only require a simple majority of 51.

While the majority of Republican senators have confirmed Trump’s cabinet nominations, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell has pushed back against three controversial candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth. Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins joined McConnell’s vote against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s later successful confirmation.

Despite the controversy surrounding some of Trump’s nominees, the cabinet has been confirmed at a quicker pace than his first term - even quicker than former President Biden’s nominations.

Who’s next to be confirmed?

Department of Labor Secretary - Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Chavez-DeRemer is a former Republican Congresswoman from Oregon. During her confirmation hearing this week, she was asked mainly about her controversial pro-unions stance and her views on workers’ rights.

U.S. Trade Representative - Jameison Greer

Greer served as chief of staff to former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Trump’s first administration. During his confirmation hearing earlier this month, he emphasized his support of Trump’s tariff policies and protection of economic and national security interests.

Department of Education Secretary - Linda McMahon

McMahon was Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration in Trump’s first administration. During her hearing last week, she emphasized her interests in emerging technologies, saying that “[America] need[s] to invest in American students who want to become tech pioneers.”

United Nations Ambassador - Elise Stefanik

Stefanik is the Republican representative for New York’s 21st congressional district. During her hearing a month ago, she endorsed Israel’s biblical rights claims to the entire West Bank, which sparked controversy in the Senate.

I’ve got 2 minutes

Part two is here! We explore potential outcomes of the war and which of these is most likely.

There are essentially four futures for a Russia/Ukraine war:

1. The conflict continues as a war of attrition, with Ukraine and Russia testing each other’s resources and resolve.

2. An armistice is established that freezes the front lines, similar to the current situation between North and South Korea where a demilitarised zone buffers the two borders.

3. Ukraine loses the war.

4. Ukraine wins the war.

Putin Victory

A Ukrainian loss would occur if a ceasefire or surrender let Putin claim he met his war goals. At the beginning of the invasion, he aimed for Ukraine’s ‘denazification’ and ‘demilitarization,’ despite Ukraine not being Nazi-run.

In 2022, Russia demanded Ukraine cut its military to 50,000 and limit trucks and armor, aligning with its ‘demilitarization’ goal.

Three years later, Putin seeks permanent recognition of annexed territories. Along with Crimea (taken in 2014), Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are contested in peace talks, despite Russia lacking full control.

Putin also demands lifted sanctions and Ukraine’s NATO exclusion. His bid to keep NATO away partly failed, as his neighbours Sweden and Finland joined because of the invasion.

Zelensky Victory

Zelensky wants Ukraine’s land back. He stated: "We will never recognize occupied territories as Russian." He suggested a peace deal could involve exchanging occupied territories.

In October 2024, Zelensky presented a ‘victory plan’ to Ukraine’s parliament and key allies. The first objective was a NATO invitation, ensuring security guarantees from Western powers and deterring Russian invasions.

The second objective is strengthening Ukraine’s defenses, including gaining approval to strike Russian targets.

Ukraine also seeks a non-nuclear deterrent, likely a U.S. or European long-range missile system based in Ukraine. Additional goals include joint protection of Ukraine’s mineral resources with the U.S. and Europe, and temporarily replacing U.S. troops in Europe with Ukrainian soldiers to strengthen ties.

What’s looking likely?

In a Trump administration, it’s unlikely Ukraine will regain its 2014 borders or join NATO. President Trump seems more sympathetic to Russia, accusing Ukraine of starting the war and demanding Zelensky hold elections. Zelensky lamented the U.S. believing Russian disinformation.

U.S.-Russia peace talks have yet to include Ukraine or Europe, who would advocate for Ukraine’s objectives. President Trump seeks a quick deal, which could give Putin what he wants. Some question if such a deal would lead to lasting peace, as it could weaken Ukraine and embolden Putin, suspected of wanting total control over Ukraine.

Tomorrow, wrap up this series, outlining why Ukraine/Russia is getting global attention.