☕ Russia-Ukraine: why the world cares?

Welcome to Friday.

For the final part of our three-part series, we’re answering a question that might seem clear on the surface, but actually takes some thinking about how to properly answer - why does the rest of the world actually care?

I’ve got 30 seconds

Some headlines from this morning:

Kash Patel has been officially confirmed as FBI director after a narrow Senate vote of 51-49 that saw two Republicans side with the Democrats against President Trump’s nominee. As FBI boss, Patel will oversee domestic investigations and surveillance. During the hearings, the Democrats argued Patel is too loyal to President Trump and worry his promise of action against presidential rivals endangers the continued independence of the FBI from the White House, Republicans dismissed these concerns, saying there would be no politicisation of the FBI. Two top FBI officials have resigned since President Trump’s inauguration, signalling an unstable time for the organization.

Luis Rubiales, the former head of Spanish football, has been found guilty of sexually assaulting a player at the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2023. Spain’s High Court found Rubiales kissed player Jenni Hermoso without her consent following the country’s World Cup victory. Hermoso had also accused Rubiales and three other football executives of trying to coerce her into silence, which the court ruled against. Rubiales told media he plans to appeal the decision, which includes a €10,800 fine and an order from being within 200 meters of Hermoso, or contacting her, for at least a year.

Passengers of a Delta Airlines flight which overturned in Toronto during landing on Monday have been offered $30,000 each, with the airline stating the payment does not restrict further legal action. All 79 passengers and four crew members survived the crash, but 21 were hospitalized. The plane, which took off from Minneapolis, faced icy conditions and 40 mph wind gusts upon landing. Investigators are still trying to determine the cause of the crash, and have asked people not to speculate before their investigations are concluded.

Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving majority leader in American history, has announced he won’t seek reelection in 2026, which is the next time the 83-year-old would have to seek voter endorsement. The Kentucky Senator has served in the Senate since 1985, and is now in his seventh term. He was the Congressional leader for 18 years until late last year. In a statement, McConnell said he would “not seek this honor an eighth time”, but did not directly address longstanding concerns around his health and mental fitness.

I’ve got 1 minute

Israel has accused Hamas of violating their ceasefire by handing over a different body in place of one of the hostages taken on 7 October 2023.

As part of the first phase of the month-old ceasefire, Hamas and Israel have been exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

A scheduled exchange yesterday was meant to include four bodies, including a woman and her two infant children.

However, Israel says testing shows that the children’s bodies have been returned, but not their mother.

Background

Following 15 months of war, a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel came into effect on 19 January. The agreement has three phases. Under Phase 1, hostilities between Israel and Hamas are required to cease.

During this time, Hamas is required to release 33 hostages over a six week period, including women, children, older adults, the wounded, and the bodies of the dead.

In exchange, Israel is required to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including several serving life sentences.

Handover

On Thursday, Hamas released the bodies of four hostages in coffins during a staged ceremony. The United Nations condemned the “abhorrent and appalling parading of bodies” by Hamas.

The returned remains were meant to include an elderly man, and three of four members of a family — a woman in her 30s and her two children, who were aged four and nine months respectively when they were taken hostage.

The family of four were taken from a farm near Israel’s border with Gaza on 7 October. The husband was released alive earlier this month.

Following forensic testing, Israeli authorities confirmed the identity of the man and the two children.

Authorities now allege the fourth body is neither the boys’ mother nor any other hostage.

In a post to X, the IDF said: “This is an anonymous, unidentified body. This is a violation of utmost severity”.

Hamas has yet to respond to Israel’s claims.

Exchanges

Another exchange of six living hostages for a group of Palestinian prisoners is scheduled for Saturday (local time).

Negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire were planned to take place at the start of the month, but did not begin.

On Tuesday, Israel announced these discussions would begin this week. Early on Thursday, Hamas said if the second phase began, it would release all of the remaining hostages in one go.

It’s unclear if and how Thursday’s exchange will impact negotiations.

I’ve got 2 minutes

This week, President Trump said the outcome of the Ukraine war is far more important to Europe than it is to the US, highlighting the " big, beautiful ocean" separating the US from Russia. Geographically, this is true - but national security experts still warn that the outcome of the war will impact the US and the world.

In the final part of our three part series, we explain why the world cares about the Russia/Ukraine war.

Collapse of a ‘rules based international order’

Let’s start with the ideas at stake. The ‘rules-based international order’ (the general idea that our world works when all nations follow a relatively common set of rules) is built on state sovereignty (the notion that a country can make its own decisions), peaceful dispute resolution, free trade, and human rights. Critics argue powerful nations flaunt its conventions, but since World War II, the promotion of these ideas, both at international forums like the United Nations and in private bilateral discussions, has fostered global stability, economic growth, and deterred world wars.

Russia ignored these principles by invading Ukraine. Experts fear a Ukrainian loss would signal the system’s failure, strengthening authoritarian regimes and increasing global instability.

China, for instance, has indicated its intent to occupy Taiwan - but has been deterred by a promise by the US to Taiwan that it would assist its defense should that happen. Should China see an example of one superpower (Russia) invading a smaller neighbor (Ukraine) with little consequence, they may be emboldened.

Economically, countries warn that authoritarian regimes more tempted to launch wars or invasions would force massive defense budget increases, limiting governments' ability to fund programs for citizens.

Nuclear Proliferation

Vladimir Putin has made nuclear threats throughout the Ukrainian war. In response to US rockets striking inside Russia, he lowered the legal threshold for nuclear use in late 2024, allowing Russian forces to deploy and ready weapons in response to a possible conventional (non-nuclear) attack on Russian soil.

Seen by some as nuclear blackmail against Western interference, this threat would be endorsed if Ukraine lost. National security experts predict it could trigger a global nuclear arms race, undoing decades of anti-proliferation efforts and increasing the risk of future nuclear conflict.

Containing Russia

President Trump is correct - the immediate risk of Ukraine surrendering is to Europe. Leaders fear a ceasefire granting Putin portions of Ukraine would not only weaken Ukraine, but create unstable peace, encouraging further Russian invasion into other nations and breaches of state sovereignty which would bring Russia close to Europe’s doorstep.

Is this the only way of looking at it?

In short, no. It’s always hard to guess what comes next - but the aim of this read is to help you understand why, collectively, countries around the world care enough to have given $280 billion to Ukraine in aid.

However, other perspectives exist, the current US administration prefers a more isolationist, less globalist perspective. The Trump Administration argues less international intervention means a greater focus on US focus stability and self-sufficiency.

This concludes our three part series. We’re keen to know what you thought of our coverage this week - if you have any feedback for us, just simply hit reply to this email. We’d love to meet you.