☕ Can Trump really score a third term?

It’s Tuesday.

Here’s some good news for your morning - a UK research trial into treating peanut allergies has had a 100% success rate. A group of 73 children aged 4 to 14 were included in the trials. Over an 18-month period, participants were gradually exposed to increasing traces of peanut butter. Initially, all 73 kids could only tolerate around half a peanut. By the end of the study, their tolerance increased to three tablespoons of peanut butter without an allergic reaction. About 2% of Americans have a peanut allergy - this could be extremely good news, and one to watch.

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Some headlines from this morning:

🚑 At least 55 people have died after a bus plunged off a highway bridge in Guatemala’s capital, according to the Associated Press. The bus was travelling on the bridge out of the city when it collided with several other vehicles, before falling about 20 metres. The President of Guatemala Bernardo Arévalo has declared three days of national mourning. In a post on X, he said: “I stand in solidarity with the families of the victims who today woke up to heartbreaking news. Their pain is my pain.”

📂 A federal Judge has extended the temporary block of a deadline on a cost-cutting deal already accepted by 65,000 federal employees, who in return for their resignation received pay until September. The block was meant to end on Monday after his honour finished hearing oral arguments from the Trump administration, who designed the deal, and labour unions, who brought the suit. At the end of the hearing on Monday, Judge George O’Toole extended the block "until [he responds] to the issues presented."

🥚 Trader Joe’s has joined Costco, Sprouts, and other retailers in limiting egg purchases due to the nationwide avian flu-related shortage. Efforts to contain H1N1, which has been spreading since last year, have led to over 150 million poultry deaths. This has caused an egg shortage, with prices more than doubling since August 2023. Trader Joe’s announced today, “We are currently limiting egg purchases to one dozen per customer, per day,” blaming the shortage. Authorities are concerned about H1N1 evolution, after a variant was detected spreading through cattle populations last week.

💸 An Elon Musk-led consortium made a $97.4 billion bid to buy the non-profit controlling OpenAI, which Musk co-founded with CEO Sam Altman. This continues their feud, which began in 2018 when Musk left the startup before the AI boom and development of ChatGPT. Musk’s offer follows his protest against Altman’s efforts to reverse OpenAI’s non-profit status, claiming it conflicts with the company’s original purpose to help humanity. OpenAI, one of the world’s most valuable companies, is expected to be valued at $300 billion in its next funding round.

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Hamas has said it will delay the scheduled release of hostages “until further notice,” accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement. Israel has denied any violations of the terms.

Under the first phase of the agreement, Hamas is required to release small groups of Israeli hostages each week, in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners.

President Trump said the ceasefire should be cancelled if Hamas does not return all the remaining hostages by Saturday.

Here’s some background

Following 15 months of war, a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel came into effect on 19 January.

The agreement has three phases. Under Phase 1, hostilities between Israel and Hamas were required to cease.

During this time, Hamas was required to release 33 hostages over a six week period, including women, children, older adults and the wounded.

In exchange, Israel was required to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including several serving life sentences.

Hamas’ statement

In a statement overnight, Hamas accused Israel of delaying Palestinians’ return to northern Gaza, attacking civilians, and blocking aid.

It said it would postpone the next release of hostages – scheduled for Saturday – ”until [Israel] commits to and compensates for the entitlements of the past weeks”.

In a follow-up statement, Hamas said it had given five days of warning about the delay “in order to give mediators sufficient time to pressure [Israel] into fulfilling its obligations.”

Israel’s response

Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz called the delay to the release of hostages an “outright violation of the ceasefire”. The Israeli government also rejected claims about the blocking of aid.

He said that he had ordered the Israeli army to “prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza and to protect the [border] communities.”

Katz added: “We will not allow a return to the reality of October 7.”

Where Trump stands

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, President Trump said Israel’s response to Hamas was its decision to make.

However, he said: “As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock... I would say cancel [the ceasefire] and all bets are off, and let hell break out.”

During a joint press conference with Netanyahu last week, Trump said he wanted the US to “take over” and re-develop the Gaza Strip.

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President Donald Trump has joked about running for a third term multiple times since his inauguration late last month. While humorous, these comments have raised concerns about Trump’s loyalty to the US Constitution, which limits presidents to two terms.

What has he said?

In his second week, President Trump remarked, “I’ve raised a lot of money for the next race that I assume I can’t use for myself, but I’m not 100 percent sure because I don’t know.”

At a Prayer Breakfast, he said, “They say I can’t run again... Then somebody said, ‘I don’t think you can.’ Oh.”

In November 2024, then-president-elect Trump joked about amending the Constitution, saying, “I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’”

Can he actually do it?

No, he cannot legally run for a third term.

The 22nd Amendment states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”

However, the Constitution can be amended. Republican Rep. Andy Olges proposed an amendment earlier this year, allowing Trump a third term, but it gained little traction.

Some worry Trump might not concede power, especially after the January 6 2021 riots, where he is accused of encouraging insurrectionists to storm the Capitol after his loss to Joe Biden.

There is also a little known loophole in the constitution which would allow President Trump to run for vice-president and then become President in the event the elected president was incapacitated. No one in the Trump administration has suggested this.

Is he serious?

Most believe Trump is joking, as he has said he has no interest in a third term. In April 2024, he stated, “Not for me. I wouldn’t be in favor of it at all. I intend to serve four years and do a great job.”

Insiders also report that President Trump does not want to undertake another election, after 2024’s gruelling campaign which saw two assassination attempts against him.

Who’s next?

If Trump does not amend the Constitution, his endorsement for the next Republican candidate is likely to hold significant sway.

On Monday, Trump refused to endorse his VP, JD Vance, a front-runner for the 2028 nomination.

Some expect Trump will endorse his son, Donald Trump Jr.