☕ Why should I care about NATO?

Good morning.

Iranian authorities have announced the easing of wide-spread internet restrictions, put in place by the governing regime almost straight after Israel’s initial strikes on the country almost two weeks ago.

Is this a sign the fragile ceasefire will continue to hold? Let me know what you think.

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Some headlines from this morning:

Pro-Iranian hackers targeted U.S. banks, defense contractors, and oil companies on Monday in response to Washington's weekend airstrikes on Iran. The hacking group 313 claimed responsibility for disrupting President Trump's Truth Social platform, while two pro-Palestine groups detailed attacks on banking and energy services via Telegram. Many groups behind the cyberattacks can be linked to Iran's government, though some operate independently. The hacking campaigns are expected to cease if the current ceasefire holds.

New York State Legislator Zohran Mamdani has declared victory in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, with former Governor Andrew Cuomo conceeding the race. The 33-year-old democratic socialist overcame Cuomo's 30-point polling lead with promises of rent freezes, free public transit and city-owned grocery stores. Cuomo conceded the race after neither candidate reached the required 50% threshold, with Mamdani receiving about 44% of votes and Cuomo on 36%. The general election is on November 4, where the Democratic candidate, likely to be Mamdani, will face current mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent candidate. The Republican mayoral candidate is Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, a nonprofit organisation dedicated to crime prevention.

A review into an incident that left a Boeing plane without part of its cabin has blamed the manufacturer for multiple safety failures. An Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 was forced to make an emergency landing in January 2024, after a midair door plug blowout caused significant structural damage and injured eight people. Now, findings from an investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board blame the incident on systemic failures by Boeing. This includes four key bolts that were missing from the plane door “before the newly manufactured” aircraft was delivered to Alaska Airlines. According to the NTSB, Boeing did not conduct a quality assurance check of the plug closure, and its staff were inadequately trained to identify the issue. The NTSB has called for “an independent third-party panel to conduct a comprehensive review of Boeing’s safety culture”. It also urged Boeing to improve its on-the-job training and operations to address what it called “persistent deficiencies.”

Indian astronaut Shubhanshu Shukla became the second Indian to reach space after Wednesday's successful Axiom-4 launch to the International Space Station. The Air Force Group Captain pilots the multinational SpaceX mission, marking India's return to human spaceflight after 41 years since Rakesh Sharma flew with Russia in 1984. The crew, which includes astronauts from NASA, ISRO (India's space agency), and ESA, conducts medical experiments during their 14-day stay. India prepares its first independent crewed mission, Gaganyaan, scheduled for a 2027 launch.

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NATO leaders have agreed to a massive increase in defense spending, raising targets from 2% to 5% of GDP at their summit in The Hague, Netherlands. The decision comes as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said "the world becomes more dangerous" and allies need to create "a stronger, a fairer and a more lethal Alliance".

What is NATO?

NATO is a military alliance of 32 member countries - 30 European and 2 North American countries - designed to provide mutual protection through Article 5 of its founding treaty. The alliance was created by 12 countries on April 4, 1949, and has since expanded through 10 rounds of enlargement.

Since 2006, NATO members have committed to spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense, though most countries have historically failed to meet this target. In 2024, a record 23 of 32 member states met the 2% spending requirement.

The 5% Spending Plan

The new 5% target breaks down to 3.5% for core military spending and 1.5% for defense-related items like cybersecurity and infrastructure. Officials acknowledge this is "highly ambitious" and "has the potential to transform societies in Europe".

Spain, which has the lowest military spending in the alliance, signaled it wanted a carve-out from the agreement. NATO Secretary General Rutte praised Trump's "longstanding leadership in calling for NATO to increase defense spending," noting the alliance had added "a trillion dollars in new defense spending over the past decade".

Trump’s Role

President Trump attended the summit for one day, arriving after announcing a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that was already showing signs of strain. "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing," Trump said of Israel and Iran before departing for the Netherlands.

Trump plans to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the summit, though Ukraine remains a NATO partner country and was promised "future membership" at the 2008 Bucharest Summit.

The summit continues through Wednesday, with heads of state meeting in the North Atlantic Council to discuss the alliance's most important decisions.

I’ve got 2 minutes

The ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran, first announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, now appears to be holding.

The ceasefire came into effect yesterday afternoon. While there were initially accusations that it had been breached, missiles have now stopped.

The ceasefire comes as the White House disputes an initial intelligence report from the Pentagon saying U.S. airstrikes failed to destroy Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium. Here’s the latest.

Background

Two weeks ago, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned Iran was not able to show evidence “its nuclear material was not being diverted for... military use”.

The following day, Israel launched strikes across Iran, including nuclear sites. Iran struck back at Israeli cities Tel Aviv and Haifa. Both sides have said they were aiming for military infrastructure; both have killed civilians.

Iranian authorities report more than 606 deaths, mostly civilians. Israeli officials report 27 civilian deaths.

Over the weekend, the U.S. hit three nuclear facilities across Iran: Fordo, Natanz, and Esfahan. Iran retaliated by firing more than a dozen missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar. Within hours of the Iranian strike on the U.S. base, a ceasefire was announced by President Donald Trump.

Ceasefire

Soon after the ceasefire was meant to come into effect, Israel alleged Iran had launched strikes in a breach of the truce. Israel said it would “respond forcefully” to Iran’s alleged strikes.

Iran denied that it had breached the ceasefire by launching new missiles. U.S. President Donald Trump then warned Israel not to launch more missiles. In a post to Truth Social, Trump said: “Israel. Do not drop those bombs. If you do it, it is a major violation.”

Trump’s Reaction

Speaking to reporters shortly after, Trump doubled down on his criticism of Israel and Iran following the alleged breaches of the ceasefire.

He said: “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f**k they’re doing.”

Trump suggested Iran’s missiles could have been a mistake, and said they did not land in Israel.

Trump said: “I’m not happy with Israel… I’m not happy with Iran either.” However, in the hours since these comments, it appears the ceasefire has been holding. If it does continue to hold, it will mark the end of 12 days of fighting.

Pentagon Assessment

The early Pentagon assessment of the damage U.S. “bunker busters” achieved did not agree with Trump administration claims that the Iranian nuclear program was "completely destroyed".

Instead, it reported that Iran still had its enriched uranium stockpiles and that centrifuges key to making nuclear material were still intact.

Anonymous intelligence sources told U.S. media Iran’s nuclear program would only be delayed by a few months.

The White House said this assessment was "flat-out wrong" and leaked by "a low-level loser in the intelligence community".

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also said, "Anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission."

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