☕ Will mail-in ballots be banned?

Good morning.

In the past few hours, Israel’s defense force has called up 60,000 reservists after the plan to move into Gaza City was approved by Defense Minister Israel Katz. According to military officials speaking to AFP, drafts would begin in September.

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Some headlines from this morning:

• The Trump administration revoked security clearances for 37 former intelligence officers on Wednesday, with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard saying they engaged in "politicization or weaponization of intelligence." Many of those affected worked on the 2016 Russian election interference investigation and signed a 2019 letter critical of Trump's presidency. Gabbard said in a social media post that the former officials "betrayed their oath to the Constitution." The revocations follow renewed attention to the letter after far-right influencer Laura Loomer reposted it earlier this month.

• The NASDAQ fell nearly 2% yesterday after OpenAI founder Sam Altman said investors are "overexcited about AI" in an interview with The Verge. Altman's comments sparked fears of an AI investment bubble similar to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s, when the NASDAQ lost 80% of its value as internet companies failed to deliver profits. Alibaba co-founder Joe Tsai and other tech leaders have made similar warnings about the pace of AI investment. Altman's company is expected to surpass a $20 billion valuation less than ten years after its founding.

• The United Nations announced Wednesday that 383 aid workers were killed in 2024, a record high representing a 31% increase from 2023. UN humanitarian office OCHA said soldiers were responsible for the majority of killings, which occurred while workers were "in the line of duty" or in their homes. The deaths were primarily driven by Israel's attacks on Gaza and Sudan's ongoing civil war. Deliberately attacking humanitarian workers constitutes a war crime under international law, and the International Criminal Court already has active proceedings against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged crimes, including civilian starvation and attacks on civilians.

• Walmart has recalled three lots of Great Value frozen shrimp after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) detected radioactive material in the product. The agency found Cesium-137, a radioactive isotope, in an Indonesian shipping container and later in shrimp samples, though levels were below those requiring mandatory FDA action. The FDA said the contamination could still pose "potential health concerns" for consumers exposed over time. The recall is part of an ongoing FDA investigation into BMS Foods of Indonesia, which has shipped Cesium-137 contaminated products previously.

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Hurricane Erin weakens but threatens the East Coast with dangerous surf and flooding as officials warn of an active 2025 hurricane season ahead. Here's what you need to know.

The current situation

Hurricane Erin dropped to Category 2 strength on Tuesday after fluctuating between Categories 3 and 5 over the past week. The storm is moving north parallel to the U.S. East Coast and isn't expected to make direct landfall.

Despite weakening, Erin has prompted mandatory evacuations in North Carolina's Outer Banks and swimming bans along the Eastern seaboard. More than 60 people required water rescues at a North Carolina beach on Monday due to dangerous currents.

"Waves over 15 feet are expected to hit the islands Wednesday, potentially flooding key infrastructure," the National Weather Service said.

2025 season

Erin marks the first hurricane of what forecasters predict will be an exceptionally active 2025 season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned in May of a "60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season" with up to 19 named storms possible.

The prediction carries 70% confidence and suggests three to five major hurricanes could develop - storms with winds exceeding 111 mph that can uproot trees, damage homes, and overturn vehicles.

Several factors are creating ideal hurricane conditions this year, according to NOAA meteorologists. Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures provide more fuel for storm development, while the absence of La Niña or El Niño weather patterns removes typical hurricane-suppressing effects.

"Consistent wind speed and direction throughout the atmosphere" also favor storm formation, NOAA climatologist Sarah Chen said.

What happens next?

Erin will pass between Bermuda and the East Coast on Wednesday and Thursday before moving away from populated areas. The storm center is set to stay east of the Bahamas.

Hurricane season runs through November 30, with peak activity typically occurring in August and September.

"The impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," NOAA warned, urging inland residents to also prepare emergency plans.

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President Trump has announced plans to ban mail-in voting nationwide, claiming it enables fraud despite constitutional protections for state election authorities. Here's what you need to know.

This week

Yesterday, President Trump said he will move to ban mail-in ballots in U.S. elections, calling the voting method "corrupt" and claiming it unfairly benefits Democrats. The announcement follows his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where Trump said Putin told him, "Your election was rigged because you have mail-in voting."

Trump posted on Truth Social that lawyers are drafting an executive order to "bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections," targeting a voting method used by 30% of Americans in 2024.

Constitutional conflict

The Constitution grants states, not the federal government, authority over election procedures, including voting methods. Article I gives states power to determine "times, places, and manner" of elections, with Congress holding limited oversight authority.

Trump is challenging this framework directly. "States must do what the Federal Government tells them to do," he wrote on Truth Social.

"This argument is wrong and dangerous," UCLA election law professor Rick Hasen told the BBC. "The Constitution clearly assigns these powers to states."

Current landscape

Eight states plus Washington, D.C., automatically mail ballots to all eligible voters for every election. Most other states allow voters to request mail-in ballots without requiring specific reasons.

Mail-in voting expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, when 42% of 2020 votes were cast by mail. Usage remained significant in 2024 despite a return to normal conditions.

While Democrats historically used mail-in voting more frequently, Republican outreach efforts in 2024 significantly narrowed the partisan gap, according to analysis by Politico.

Evidence

Research shows no evidence that mail-in voting increases fraud rates compared to in-person voting. Multiple studies and election audits have found that mail-in systems include robust security measures like signature verification and ballot tracking.

Trump's claim that the U.S. is alone in allowing mail-in voting is also incorrect - 34 countries permit some form of postal voting, according to election administration experts.

What’s next

Any executive order would likely face immediate legal challenges from states defending their constitutional authority over elections. Federal courts would need to resolve the conflict between presidential directives and state sovereignty over voting procedures.

The 2026 midterm elections are less than two years away, making the legal timeline crucial for the implementation of any changes.

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